Ottawa Senators Line Matchups
2026-27 · 1-0-0 · 2 pts · 4th Atlantic
How the Senators match lines at 5-on-5: who they send against the other team's top line, how hard they match at home, where they change last, versus on the road, and which players carry the toughest minutes. This is the Last-Change Fingerprint.
Next game, Oct 5
The Bruins have last change at home. Minutes are expected 5v5 time together; the ratio compares it with coaches ignoring matchups (1.00×).
Senators
- Line 1Stützle – Amadio – Cozensvs BOS Pastrnak line 4.8 min (1.11×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 5.0 min (0.98×)
- Line 2Batherson – Pinto – Girouxvs BOS Pastrnak line 4.6 min (1.17×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 5.1 min (1.10×)
- Line 3Foegele – EklundNew team · 1 GP with OTT – Cousinsvs BOS Pastrnak line 3.2 min (0.98×) · vs BOS Borgen pair 3.9 min (1.07×)
- Line 4Zetterlund – Halliday – Hodgsonvs BOS Kuraly line 3.3 min (1.99×) · vs BOS Lindholm pair 3.1 min (1.15×)
- Pair 1Spence – Chabotvs BOS Pastrnak line 6.9 min (1.06×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 7.4 min (0.98×)
- Pair 2Matinpalo – Klevenvs BOS Pastrnak line 4.4 min (0.92×) · vs BOS Clifton pair 5.8 min (1.03×)
- Pair 3Sanderson – Yakemchukvs BOS Pastrnak line 3.8 min (0.93×) · vs BOS Borgen pair 4.7 min (1.04×)
Bruins
- Line 1Pastrnak – PeterkaNew team · 3 GP with BOS – Geekievs OTT Stützle line 4.8 min (1.11×) · vs OTT Spence pair 6.9 min (1.06×)
- Line 2Mittelstadt – Zacha – Lindholmvs OTT Stützle line 4.4 min (1.14×) · vs OTT Spence pair 6.1 min (1.07×)
- Line 3Minten – Khusnutdinov – Hagensvs OTT Stützle line 3.6 min (1.05×) · vs OTT Spence pair 4.8 min (0.96×)
- Line 4Kuraly – Jeannot – Kastelicvs OTT Zetterlund line 3.3 min (1.99×) · vs OTT Spence pair 3.8 min (0.92×)
- Pair 1CliftonNew team · 3 GP with BOS – Zadorovvs OTT Batherson line 5.1 min (1.10×) · vs OTT Spence pair 7.4 min (0.98×)
- Pair 2BorgenNew team · 3 GP with BOS – Lohreivs OTT Stützle line 4.7 min (0.97×) · vs OTT Spence pair 7.0 min (0.98×)
- Pair 3Lindholm – Aspirotvs OTT Stützle line 4.5 min (0.98×) · vs OTT Spence pair 6.7 min (0.98×)
Full line-vs-line grid
| BOS | Line 1Stützle | Line 2Batherson | Line 3Foegele | Line 4Zetterlund | Pair 1Spence | Pair 2Matinpalo | Pair 3Sanderson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 Pastrnak | 4.8(1.1) | 4.6(1.2) | 3.2(1.0) | 1.7(0.7) | 6.9(1.1) | 4.4(0.9) | 3.8(0.9) |
| Line 2 Mittelstadt | 4.4(1.1) | 3.8(1.1) | 2.8(0.9) | 1.4(0.6) | 6.1(1.1) | 4.3(1.0) | 3.3(0.9) |
| Line 3 Minten | 3.6(1.1) | 2.7(0.9) | 2.7(1.0) | 2.0(1.0) | 4.8(1.0) | 3.9(1.0) | 3.4(1.1) |
| Line 4 Kuraly | 1.8(0.7) | 1.9(0.8) | 2.1(1.0) | 3.3(2.0) | 3.8(0.9) | 3.1(1.0) | 2.8(1.1) |
| Pair 1 Clifton | 5.0(1.0) | 5.1(1.1) | 3.8(1.0) | 2.8(0.9) | 7.4(1.0) | 5.8(1.0) | 4.7(1.0) |
| Pair 2 Borgen | 4.7(1.0) | 4.2(1.0) | 3.9(1.1) | 2.9(1.0) | 7.0(1.0) | 5.1(1.0) | 4.7(1.0) |
| Pair 3 Lindholm | 4.5(1.0) | 3.9(0.9) | 3.5(1.0) | 3.1(1.1) | 6.7(1.0) | 5.1(1.0) | 4.3(1.0) |
- With last change at home, the Senators are one of the most deliberate line matchers in the league (8th of 32 by matching intensity).
- At home their top line sees the other team's top line 1.18× as often as random mixing: power against power.
- The top pair is the shutdown pair at home: 1.14× random mixing against top lines.
- They match lines at least as hard on the road as at home (intensity 0.08 vs 0.07), changing on the fly to get their matchups.
From the last 30 home and 30 road games with shift data (this season and last), as of Oct 4, 2026. Ratios are shrunk toward 1.00 for small samples.
At home: with last change
| Senators | Opp Line 1 | Opp Line 2 | Opp Line 3 | Opp Line 4 | Opp Pair 1 | Opp Pair 2 | Opp Pair 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 | 1.18 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.82 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| Line 2 | 1.00 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 0.93 |
| Line 3 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Line 4 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 1.10 | 1.48 | 0.95 | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| Pair 1 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 0.91 |
| Pair 2 | 1.03 | 1.08 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 1.01 | 0.99 |
| Pair 3 | 0.75 | 0.94 | 1.13 | 1.31 | 0.93 | 0.98 | 1.11 |
On the road
| Senators | Opp Line 1 | Opp Line 2 | Opp Line 3 | Opp Line 4 | Opp Pair 1 | Opp Pair 2 | Opp Pair 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 | 1.14 | 1.05 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 1.04 | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| Line 2 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 0.93 | 0.81 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| Line 3 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 1.14 | 0.94 | 0.98 | 1.11 | 0.90 |
| Line 4 | 0.72 | 0.83 | 1.06 | 1.55 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| Pair 1 | 1.07 | 1.03 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.02 | 0.96 |
| Pair 2 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Pair 3 | 0.79 | 0.98 | 1.08 | 1.25 | 0.94 | 0.96 | 1.13 |
Player competition
Each skater's 5v5 time against each of the opponent's units, as a ratio to random mixing, over his recent games (both venues). Above 1.00 against L1 and P1: he draws top competition.
| Player | Role | GP | Opp L1 | Opp L2 | Opp L3 | Opp L4 | Opp P1 | Opp P2 | Opp P3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle | Line 1 · 14.5 min | 40 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 1.09 | 0.95 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.84 |
| Michael Amadio | Line 1 · 13.8 min | 40 | 1.35 | 1.04 | 0.78 | 0.62 | 1.02 | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| Dylan Cozens | Line 1 · 13.3 min | 40 | 0.98 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 1.09 | 0.79 |
| Drake Batherson | Line 2 · 13.1 min | 40 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.10 | 0.96 | 1.05 | 1.05 | 0.86 |
| Shane Pinto | Line 2 · 12.5 min | 40 | 1.32 | 1.04 | 0.79 | 0.63 | 1.02 | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| Claude Giroux | Line 2 · 12.1 min | 40 | 0.94 | 1.03 | 1.08 | 0.94 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 0.92 |
| Warren Foegele | Line 3 · 10.9 min | 26 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 1.04 | 1.49 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 1.22 |
| William Eklund | Line 3 · 10.8 min | 1 | 0.86 | 1.01 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| Nick Cousins | Line 3 · 9.9 min | 40 | 1.18 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 1.11 |
| Fabian Zetterlund | Line 4 · 9.4 min | 40 | 0.64 | 0.79 | 1.18 | 1.68 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 1.30 |
| Stephen Halliday | Line 4 · 8.3 min | 31 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 1.15 | 2.04 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 1.37 |
| Hayden Hodgson | Line 4 · 7.0 min | 11 | 0.58 | 0.66 | 1.04 | 1.97 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| Jordan Spence | Pair 1 · 20.7 min | 40 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 0.98 | 1.02 | 0.97 |
| Thomas Chabot | Pair 1 · 20.4 min | 40 | 1.10 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.93 |
| Nikolas Matinpalo | Pair 2 · 15.4 min | 40 | 0.79 | 0.99 | 1.12 | 1.22 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 1.09 |
| Tyler Kleven | Pair 2 · 14.8 min | 40 | 0.83 | 0.99 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 0.96 | 1.01 | 1.03 |
| Jake Sanderson | Pair 3 · 14.8 min | 40 | 1.22 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 0.76 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 0.93 |
| Carter Yakemchuk | Pair 3 · 11.0 min | 6 | 0.86 | 1.01 | 1.09 | 1.15 | 0.91 | 0.97 | 1.16 |
Every game tonight
These habits drive the Matchup Forecast. It projects which line and pair each player faces tonight, for every game. Also see the Senators line combinations and the methodology.
FAQ
Who do the Senators match against the other team's top line?
At home, with last change, the Senators' pair 1 (D) sees top lines 1.14× as often as random mixing, and among depth forwards line 3 gets the most top-line minutes (1.03×). The full grid and each player's numbers are on this page.
What is a Last-Change Fingerprint?
It's a coach's line-matching habit, measured from shift charts. Each cell compares the 5-on-5 time one of his units spent against one of the opponent's units with what it would have been if he ignored matchups. 1.00× is random mixing, above it is a matchup he seeks, below it one he avoids. It's measured separately at home, where the home coach changes last, and on the road.
How do the Senators' matchups affect fantasy hockey?
A forward who regularly draws the other team's top line and top pair faces tougher competition than his raw numbers suggest. A sheltered line gets softer minutes. Tonight's Matchup Forecast applies these habits to each game's projected lineups.