Toronto Maple Leafs Line Matchups
2026-27 · 1-2-0 · 2 pts · 7th Atlantic
How the Maple Leafs match lines at 5-on-5: who they send against the other team's top line, how hard they match at home, where they change last, versus on the road, and which players carry the toughest minutes. This is the Last-Change Fingerprint.
- With last change at home, the Maple Leafs are a middle-of-the-pack line matcher (15th of 32 by matching intensity).
- At home their top line sees the other team's top line 1.13× as often as random mixing: power against power.
From the last 30 home and 30 road games with shift data (this season and last), as of Oct 4, 2026. Ratios are shrunk toward 1.00 for small samples.
At home: with last change
| Maple Leafs | Opp Line 1 | Opp Line 2 | Opp Line 3 | Opp Line 4 | Opp Pair 1 | Opp Pair 2 | Opp Pair 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 0.90 | 0.76 | 1.10 | 1.01 | 0.85 |
| Line 2 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 1.01 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Line 3 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 0.98 | 1.16 |
| Line 4 | 0.85 | 0.88 | 1.04 | 1.29 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| Pair 1 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 0.91 | 0.94 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 0.96 |
| Pair 2 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Pair 3 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 1.04 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 1.08 |
On the road
| Maple Leafs | Opp Line 1 | Opp Line 2 | Opp Line 3 | Opp Line 4 | Opp Pair 1 | Opp Pair 2 | Opp Pair 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line 1 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 1.09 | 1.01 | 0.86 |
| Line 2 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 0.94 |
| Line 3 | 0.90 | 0.99 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| Line 4 | 0.83 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 1.34 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 1.12 |
| Pair 1 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 1.03 | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| Pair 2 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Pair 3 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.03 | 1.10 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 1.05 |
Player competition
Each skater's 5v5 time against each of the opponent's units, as a ratio to random mixing, over his recent games (both venues). Above 1.00 against L1 and P1: he draws top competition.
| Player | Role | GP | Opp L1 | Opp L2 | Opp L3 | Opp L4 | Opp P1 | Opp P2 | Opp P3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander | Line 1 · 14.8 min | 40 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 0.79 | 1.10 | 1.01 | 0.83 |
| Auston Matthews | Line 1 · 13.7 min | 40 | 1.32 | 1.10 | 0.77 | 0.59 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 0.72 |
| John Tavares | Line 1 · 13.2 min | 40 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 1.02 | 0.88 | 1.13 | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Easton Cowan | Line 2 · 13.2 min | 40 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.12 | 1.06 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 1.13 |
| Kirill Marchenko | Line 2 · 13.2 min | 3 | 1.11 | 1.15 | 0.82 | 0.87 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 0.80 |
| Jack Roslovic | Line 2 · 12.9 min | 3 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 0.93 | 0.89 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 0.82 |
| Gavin McKenna | Line 3 · 11.4 min | 3 | 0.86 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| Nick Paul | Line 3 · 10.1 min | 3 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| Colton Sissons | Line 3 · 9.4 min | 3 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| Bo Groulx | Line 4 · 8.4 min | 15 | 1.02 | 0.96 | 0.99 | 1.03 | 0.89 | 0.99 | 1.19 |
| Teddy Blueger | Line 4 · 7.5 min | 3 | 0.91 | 0.89 | 1.08 | 1.19 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 1.16 |
| Brandon Duhaime | Line 4 · 7.4 min | 3 | 0.95 | 0.83 | 1.05 | 1.23 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| Morgan Rielly | Pair 1 · 16.6 min | 40 | 0.90 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Darren Raddysh | Pair 1 · 15.8 min | 3 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.96 | 1.14 | 1.00 | 1.05 | 0.90 |
| Jake McCabe | Pair 2 · 15.1 min | 40 | 1.19 | 0.98 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 0.89 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | Pair 2 · 14.9 min | 40 | 1.06 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| Troy Stecher | Pair 3 · 14.9 min | 40 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 0.97 | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| Chris Tanev | Pair 3 · 13.8 min | 14 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
Every game tonight
These habits drive the Matchup Forecast. It projects which line and pair each player faces tonight, for every game. Also see the Maple Leafs line combinations and the methodology.
FAQ
Who do the Maple Leafs match against the other team's top line?
At home, with last change, the Maple Leafs' pair 1 (D) sees top lines 1.08× as often as random mixing, and among depth forwards line 2 gets the most top-line minutes (0.99×). The full grid and each player's numbers are on this page.
What is a Last-Change Fingerprint?
It's a coach's line-matching habit, measured from shift charts. Each cell compares the 5-on-5 time one of his units spent against one of the opponent's units with what it would have been if he ignored matchups. 1.00× is random mixing, above it is a matchup he seeks, below it one he avoids. It's measured separately at home, where the home coach changes last, and on the road.
How do the Maple Leafs' matchups affect fantasy hockey?
A forward who regularly draws the other team's top line and top pair faces tougher competition than his raw numbers suggest. A sheltered line gets softer minutes. Tonight's Matchup Forecast applies these habits to each game's projected lineups.