Toronto Maple Leafs Situational Stats
2026-27 · 5-4-2 · 12 pts · 5th Atlantic
The Maple Leafs are 2-1-2 when scoring first and 3-3-0 when allowing the first goal, and score 0.91 first-period goals a game (14th in the NHL) through 11 games.
Toronto Maple Leafs record by situation
| Situation | GP | W-L-OTL | Win % | NHL rank | 2025-26 | Repeats? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring first | 5 | 2-1-2 | 40% | 24th | 18-11-9 (47%) | moderate (r 0.44) |
| Allowing first | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50% | 7th | 14-25-5 (32%) | moderate (r 0.44) |
| Leading after one | 3 | 1-0-2 | 33% | 28th | 13-6-5 (54%) | moderate (r 0.37) |
| Tied after one | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50% | 11th | 10-9-9 (36%) | |
| Trailing after one | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50% | 4th | 9-21-0 (30%) | weak (r 0.31) |
| Leading after two | 4 | 3-0-1 | 75% | 19th | 17-3-5 (68%) | weak (r 0.25) |
| Tied after two | 3 | 1-1-1 | 33% | 18th | 8-3-5 (50%) | |
| Trailing after two | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25% | 4th | 7-30-4 (17%) | weak (r 0.21) |
| One-goal games | 7 | 2-3-2 | 29% | 26th | 14-4-14 (44%) | weak (r 0.20) |
| Overtime games | 2 | 1-0-1 | 50% | 11th | 8-0-10 (44%) | noise (r 0.01) |
| Shootouts | 1 | 0-0-1 | 0% | 10th | 1-0-4 (20%) | noise (r 0.11) |
| Home | 7 | 3-3-1 | 43% | 24th | 18-15-8 (44%) | |
| Road | 4 | 2-1-1 | 50% | 10th | 14-21-6 (34%) | |
| Last 10 games | 10 | 5-3-2 | 50% | 16th | 2-7-1 (20%) |
Blown leads: 2 of 3 games leading after one period (28th fewest per lead in the NHL); 1 of 4 games leading after two periods (19th fewest per lead in the NHL). A blown lead here is a game the Maple Leafs led at that point and did not win, in regulation, overtime or a shootout.
Win % counts overtime and shootout wins. “Repeats?” is how well each split carries from one season to the next across 252 team-seasons (2017-18 to 2025-26), against r = 0.60 for overall points %: a weak or noise split mostly regresses. We have no live or period odds history, so we can’t compare these records to the market after vig. This is a description of what happened, not a bet.
Toronto Maple Leafs goals by period
| Window | GF | GA | GF/GP | Scored in | NHL rank | 2025-26 | Repeats? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First period | 10 | 12 | 0.91 | — | 14th | 0.84 | weak (r 0.29) |
| Second period | 17 | 13 | 1.55 | — | 5th | 0.95 | moderate (r 0.39) |
| Third period | 10 | 8 | 0.91 | — | 17th | 1.18 | weak (r 0.30) |
| Overtime | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | — | 14th | 0.10 | |
| First 5 minutes | 5 | 2 | 0.45 | 36% of games | 1st | 18% | noise (r 0.04) |
| First 10 minutes | 8 | 5 | 0.73 | 55% of games | 5th | 40% | weak (r 0.15) |
Period and early-goal rates over a few games are mostly noise: ten games hold about 30 goals for and against per period. “Scored in” is the share of games with a goal in that window.
Toronto Maple Leafs record by days of rest
| Situation | GP | W-L-OTL | Win % | NHL rank | 2025-26 | Repeats? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Back-to-back (0 days) | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100% | 1st | 6-8-1 (40%) | |
| 1 day of rest | 5 | 2-1-2 | 40% | 19th | 16-19-11 (35%) | |
| 2 days of rest | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33% | 19th | 7-7-2 (44%) | |
| 3+ days of rest | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0% | 21st | 3-2-0 (60%) |
From the NHL's days-between-games report. One season of back-to-backs is 10-15 games, so a team's own split says little; the league-wide back-to-back effect is priced in the Schedule Edge model.
How the Toronto Maple Leafs do by game situation in 2026-27: after scoring or allowing the first goal, when leading or trailing after each period, in close and overtime games, and by days of rest, with last season beside each line.
How to read situational records
Each line is the Toronto Maple Leafs record in the games where that situation happened in 2026-27: scoring the first goal, leading or trailing after a period, a one-goal final, overtime. Goals by period count goals scored and allowed in that period across all games, and the opening-minutes rows show how often they score inside the first 5 or 10 minutes.
Most of these splits do not carry over. Across 252 team-seasons, record when scoring first repeats at r = 0.44 and first-period scoring at r = 0.29, while overtime record (0.01) and goals in the first five minutes (0.04) are noise. Overall points % repeats at 0.60.
Read them as a description of the season so far, not a forecast. A team that is great when leading and poor when trailing is usually just a good team; first-period props and "team to score first" markets price team strength, and we hold no prices that show an edge here.
Toronto Maple Leafs situational stats FAQ
What is the Toronto Maple Leafs record when scoring first?
The Toronto Maple Leafs are 2-1-2 when they score the first goal in 2026-27 (40% wins) and 3-3-0 when they allow it.
How do the Toronto Maple Leafs do when leading after two periods?
They are 3-0-1 when leading after two periods and 1-3-0 when trailing after two this season.
How many first-period goals have the Toronto Maple Leafs scored?
10 first-period goals for and 12 against in 11 games (0.91 per game).
What is the Toronto Maple Leafs record on back-to-backs?
On the second night of a back-to-back the Toronto Maple Leafs are 2-0-0 this season. Last season they were 6-8-1 in 15.