Shot Prop Lab
Shots on Goal Projections for Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Expected shots on goal for every skater on tonight's slate, and the chance he clears 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5. Each number starts from the shooter's own attempt rate and accuracy, times the ice time we expect him to get at 5-on-5 and on the power play, then adjusts for the defenders he is likely to face and how well the opponent kills penalties.
2 games, 70 skaters · updated Oct 14, 5:50 PM ET · model shotprops-1.1.0. Projections, not picks. Book lines from 5 US sportsbooks (via The Odds API) are in the table as context, not as picks. Live since Oct 12 (1,094 graded lines): about even on shots on goal. Even with the books is not an edge once the margin is paid.
Final: 67 skaters played. Projected 102 shots in total, actual 97. Of the 3 skaters we gave a 50%+ chance of 3+ shots, 2 got there (67%; projected 60%).
Most likely to get 3+ shots
- Nathan MacKinnonCOL vs DAL62% · 3.28
- Jason RobertsonDAL @ COL62% · 3.28
- Cole CaufieldMTL @ WSH56% · 3.01
- Nazem KadriCOL vs DAL47% · 2.60
- Alex TuchWSH vs MTL46% · 2.53
- Jakob ChychrunWSH vs MTL45% · 2.50
Softest 5v5 matchups
- Alex NewhookMTL @ WSH+2% (+0.03) · 1.57
- Alexandre TexierMTL @ WSH+2% (+0.02) · 1.42
Toughest 5v5 matchups
- Nathan MacKinnonCOL vs DAL−9% (−0.22) · 3.28
- Nazem KadriCOL vs DAL−9% (−0.17) · 2.60
- Aliaksei ProtasWSH vs MTL−5% (−0.06) · 1.69
- Alex TuchWSH vs MTL−4% (−0.06) · 2.53
- Jason RobertsonDAL @ COL−3% (−0.06) · 3.28
- Thomas HarleyDAL @ COL−3% (−0.04) · 1.63
Every skater, Oct 14
Games: MTL @ WSH 7:30 PM ET · DAL @ COL 8:30 PM ET. Matchup is the 5-on-5 adjustment for the defenders he is expected to face and home ice (+5% = 5% more shots than his usual rate).
70 skaters
- Nathan MacKinnonF · COL vs DAL3.28Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 41%
- Best over
- −130
- Books
- 56%
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:41
- PP TOI
- 3:56
- SOG/60 5v5
- 9.4
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 82% / 62% / 41%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o −130 / u +122
- Jason RobertsonF · DAL @ COL3.28Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 41%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 42%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:14
- PP TOI
- 4:18
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.8
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 82% / 62% / 41%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +125 / u −156
- Cole CaufieldF · MTL @ WSH3.01Exp SOG
- Over 3.5
- 36%
- Best over
- +109
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:19
- PP TOI
- 3:34
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.4
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 78% / 56% / 36%
- Book line
- 3.5 · o +109 / u −130
- Nazem KadriF · COL vs DAL2.60Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Best over
- +108
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:00
- PP TOI
- 3:41
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.8
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 71% / 47% / 27%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +108 / u −120
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Best over
- +125
- Books
- 44%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:09
- PP TOI
- 2:08
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.3
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 70% / 46% / 26%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +125 / u −143
- Jakob ChychrunD · WSH vs MTL2.50Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 47%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 25:03
- PP TOI
- 2:54
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 45% / 25%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +110 / u −130
- Nick SuzukiF · MTL @ WSH2.49Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Best over
- +120
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:57
- PP TOI
- 3:37
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 69% / 45% / 25%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +120 / u −150
- Martin NecasF · COL vs DAL2.44Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Best over
- +110
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:36
- PP TOI
- 4:07
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.0
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 68% / 44% / 24%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +110 / u −120
- Alex OvechkinF · WSH vs MTL2.42Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Best over
- −114
- Books
- 52%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:26
- PP TOI
- 3:50
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.1
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 68% / 43% / 23%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o −114 / u +105
- Juraj SlafkovskýF · MTL @ WSH2.39Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 42%
- Best over
- +100
- Books
- 48%
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:53
- PP TOI
- 3:34
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- +1%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 67% / 42% / 23%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +100 / u −122
- Mikko RantanenF · DAL @ COL2.30Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 40%
- Best over
- +150
- Books
- 40%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 21:41
- PP TOI
- 4:30
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.2
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 65% / 40% / 21%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +150 / u −175
- Roope HintzF · DAL @ COL2.25Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 64%
- Best over
- −185
- Books
- 62%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:51
- PP TOI
- 4:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.5
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 64% / 39% / 20%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −185 / u +149
- Gabriel LandeskogF · COL vs DAL2.05Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 59%
- Best over
- −130
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:12
- PP TOI
- 2:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.4
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 59% / 34% / 16%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −130 / u +125
- Tom WilsonF · WSH vs MTL1.99Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 32%
- Best over
- +145
- Books
- 39%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:40
- PP TOI
- 2:34
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.7
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 58% / 32% / 15%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +145 / u −175
- Ryan LeonardF · WSH vs MTL1.96Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 31%
- Best over
- +130
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:28
- PP TOI
- 2:26
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.7
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 57% / 31% / 14%
- Book line
- 2.5 · o +130 / u −155
- Miro HeiskanenD · DAL @ COL1.93Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 56%
- Best over
- −125
- Books
- 53%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 26:03
- PP TOI
- 4:12
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.7
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 56% / 31% / 14%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −125 / u +110
- Artturi LehkonenF · COL vs DAL1.87Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 55%
- Best over
- −123
- Books
- 54%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:39
- PP TOI
- 1:20
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 55% / 29% / 13%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −123 / u +110
- Brock NelsonF · COL vs DAL1.85Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 54%
- Best over
- −140
- Books
- 57%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:39
- PP TOI
- 1:15
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.6
- Matchup
- −8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 54% / 28% / 12%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −140 / u +125
- Dylan StromeF · WSH vs MTL1.79Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 52%
- Best over
- −141
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:29
- PP TOI
- 3:14
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.2
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 52% / 27% / 12%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −141 / u +120
- T.J. HughesF · COL vs DAL1.78Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 52%
- Best over
- −140
- Books
- 57%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:29
- PP TOI
- 3:46
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.2
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 52% / 27% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −140 / u +140
- Boone JennerF · WSH vs MTL1.77Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 52%
- Best over
- −137
- Books
- 55%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:13
- PP TOI
- 0:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 8.0
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 52% / 26% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −137 / u +106
- Lane HutsonD · MTL @ WSH1.74Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 51%
- Best over
- −110
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 25:40
- PP TOI
- 3:47
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.5
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 51% / 26% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −110 / u −112
- Tyler SeguinF · DAL @ COL1.72Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 51%
- Best over
- −150
- Books
- 58%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:53
- PP TOI
- 1:47
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.7
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 51% / 25% / 11%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −150 / u +125
- Jordan KyrouF · WSH vs MTL1.72Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 50%
- Best over
- −130
- Books
- 54%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:08
- PP TOI
- 1:51
- SOG/60 5v5
- 7.7
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 50% / 25% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −130 / u +105
- Aliaksei ProtasF · WSH vs MTL1.69Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 50%
- Best over
- −114
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:00
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- −5%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 50% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −114 / u −110
- Brent BurnsD · COL vs DAL1.69Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 50%
- Best over
- −110
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:15
- PP TOI
- 0:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.6
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 50% / 24% / 10%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −110 / u −108
- Noah DobsonD · MTL @ WSH1.66Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 49%
- Best over
- −155
- Books
- 58%
- Actual
- 5
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:09
- PP TOI
- 1:18
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.9
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 49% / 24% / 9%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −155 / u +130
- Cole HutsonD · WSH vs MTL1.65Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 48%
- Best over
- −110
- Books
- 50%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 19:28
- PP TOI
- 2:12
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.9
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 48% / 23% / 9%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −110 / u −114
- Sam MalinskiD · COL vs DAL1.65Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 48%
- Best over
- −154
- Books
- 57%
- Actual
- 4
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 17:43
- PP TOI
- 0:24
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 48% / 23% / 9%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −154 / u +119
- Thomas HarleyD · DAL @ COL1.63Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 48%
- Best over
- +104
- Books
- 46%
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 23:51
- PP TOI
- 0:32
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.3
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 48% / 23% / 9%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +104 / u −135
- Chris KreiderF · MTL @ WSH1.60Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 47%
- Best over
- −125
- Books
- 53%
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:35
- PP TOI
- 3:27
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.5
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 47% / 22% / 9%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o −125 / u +105
- Alex NewhookF · MTL @ WSH1.57Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 21%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:52
- PP TOI
- 1:27
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.8
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 46% / 21% / 8%
- Devon ToewsD · COL vs DAL1.47Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 19%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 22:58
- PP TOI
- 2:09
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.3
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 43% / 19% / 7%
- Zachary BolducF · MTL @ WSH1.45Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 18%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:57
- PP TOI
- 1:25
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.6
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 42% / 18% / 7%
- Alexandre TexierF · MTL @ WSH1.42Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 18%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:22
- PP TOI
- 1:31
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 41% / 18% / 6%
- Josh MansonD · COL vs DAL1.31Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 15%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:23
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.4
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 37% / 15% / 5%
- Josh AndersonF · MTL @ WSH1.30Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 15%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:16
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.2
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 37% / 15% / 5%
- Anthony BeauvillierF · WSH vs MTL1.27Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 14%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:06
- PP TOI
- 0:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.8
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 36% / 14% / 5%
- Over 2.5
- 14%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:21
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.8
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 36% / 14% / 5%
- Jaden SchwartzF · COL vs DAL1.26Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 14%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:51
- PP TOI
- 1:27
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.1
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 36% / 14% / 4%
- Arttu HyryF · DAL @ COL1.23Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 13%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:06
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.2
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 35% / 13% / 4%
- Justin SourdifF · WSH vs MTL1.22Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 13%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:26
- PP TOI
- 0:36
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.3
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 34% / 13% / 4%
- Ilya ProtasF · WSH vs MTL1.21Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 34%
- Best over
- +152
- Books
- 38%
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:07
- PP TOI
- 2:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.5
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 34% / 13% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +152 / u −190
- Phillip DanaultF · MTL @ WSH1.16Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 15:06
- PP TOI
- 0:05
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.8
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 32% / 12% / 4%
- Jamie BennF · DAL @ COL1.16Exp SOG
- Over 1.5
- 32%
- Best over
- +118
- Books
- 43%
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:36
- PP TOI
- 0:22
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.7
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 32% / 12% / 4%
- Book line
- 1.5 · o +118 / u −154
- Parker KellyF · COL vs DAL1.15Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 12%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:53
- PP TOI
- 0:02
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.3
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 32% / 12% / 3%
- Justin HryckowianF · DAL @ COL1.13Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 11%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:14
- PP TOI
- 0:32
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.8
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 31% / 11% / 3%
- Ethen FrankF · WSH vs MTL1.04Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 9%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- DNP
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 9:34
- PP TOI
- 0:57
- SOG/60 5v5
- 6.5
- Matchup
- −2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 28% / 9% / 3%
- Kaiden GuhleD · MTL @ WSH0.99Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 2
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:39
- PP TOI
- 0:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.5
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 26% / 8% / 2%
- Jake EvansF · MTL @ WSH0.96Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 13:08
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.4
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 25% / 8% / 2%
- Brett KulakD · COL vs DAL0.95Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 8%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:38
- PP TOI
- 0:06
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.6
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 25% / 8% / 2%
- Fedor SvechkovF · COL vs DAL0.94Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 3
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:35
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.9
- Matchup
- −8%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 24% / 7% / 2%
- Timothy LiljegrenD · WSH vs MTL0.94Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 18:37
- PP TOI
- 0:01
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.4
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 24% / 7% / 2%
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 9:15
- PP TOI
- 0:10
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.9
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 24% / 7% / 2%
- Martin FehérváryD · WSH vs MTL0.93Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 22:06
- PP TOI
- 0:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 2.8
- Matchup
- −4%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 24% / 7% / 2%
- Nils LundkvistD · DAL @ COL0.92Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 16:57
- PP TOI
- 0:03
- SOG/60 5v5
- 3.4
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 24% / 7% / 2%
- Kirby DachF · MTL @ WSH0.90Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 1
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 9:00
- PP TOI
- 1:04
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.7
- Matchup
- +2%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 23% / 7% / 2%
- Tyler MyersD · DAL @ COL0.90Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 7%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 14:50
- PP TOI
- 0:00
- SOG/60 5v5
- 4.1
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 23% / 7% / 2%
- Nicolas RoyF · COL vs DAL0.89Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 6%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- DNP
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 12:02
- PP TOI
- 0:05
- SOG/60 5v5
- 5.1
- Matchup
- −9%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 22% / 6% / 2%
- Esa LindellD · DAL @ COL0.83Exp SOG
- Over 2.5
- 6%
- Best over
- –
- Books
- –
- Actual
- 0
Ice time, SOG/60 and matchup
- TOI
- 20:34
- PP TOI
- 0:11
- SOG/60 5v5
- 2.7
- Matchup
- −3%
- 2+ / 3+ / 4+
- 20% / 6% / 1%
| Book line | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnonF · COL vs DAL | 3.28 | 82% | 62% | 41% | 20:41PP 3:56 | 9.4 | −9% | 3.5 · o −130 / u +122 | 4 |
| Jason RobertsonF · DAL @ COL | 3.28 | 82% | 62% | 41% | 21:14PP 4:18 | 8.8 | −3% | 3.5 · o +125 / u −156 | 3 |
| Cole CaufieldF · MTL @ WSH | 3.01 | 78% | 56% | 36% | 19:19PP 3:34 | 8.4 | +1% | 3.5 · o +109 / u −130 | 0 |
| Nazem KadriF · COL vs DAL | 2.60 | 71% | 47% | 27% | 20:00PP 3:41 | 7.8 | −9% | 2.5 · o +108 / u −120 | 2 |
| Alex TuchF · WSH vs MTL | 2.53 | 70% | 46% | 26% | 19:09PP 2:08 | 8.3 | −4% | 2.5 · o +125 / u −143 | 3 |
| Jakob ChychrunD · WSH vs MTL | 2.50 | 69% | 45% | 25% | 25:03PP 2:54 | 5.9 | −3% | 2.5 · o +110 / u −130 | 2 |
| Nick SuzukiF · MTL @ WSH | 2.49 | 69% | 45% | 25% | 21:57PP 3:37 | 5.8 | +1% | 2.5 · o +120 / u −150 | 3 |
| Martin NecasF · COL vs DAL | 2.44 | 68% | 44% | 24% | 21:36PP 4:07 | 6.0 | −9% | 2.5 · o +110 / u −120 | 0 |
| Alex OvechkinF · WSH vs MTL | 2.42 | 68% | 43% | 23% | 15:26PP 3:50 | 8.1 | −2% | 2.5 · o −114 / u +105 | 0 |
| Juraj SlafkovskýF · MTL @ WSH | 2.39 | 67% | 42% | 23% | 18:53PP 3:34 | 5.9 | +1% | 2.5 · o +100 / u −122 | 4 |
| Mikko RantanenF · DAL @ COL | 2.30 | 65% | 40% | 21% | 21:41PP 4:30 | 5.2 | −3% | 2.5 · o +150 / u −175 | 1 |
| Roope HintzF · DAL @ COL | 2.25 | 64% | 39% | 20% | 17:51PP 4:03 | 6.5 | −3% | 1.5 · o −185 / u +149 | 1 |
| Gabriel LandeskogF · COL vs DAL | 2.05 | 59% | 34% | 16% | 17:12PP 2:11 | 7.4 | −9% | 1.5 · o −130 / u +125 | 2 |
| Tom WilsonF · WSH vs MTL | 1.99 | 58% | 32% | 15% | 19:40PP 2:34 | 5.7 | −4% | 2.5 · o +145 / u −175 | 5 |
| Ryan LeonardF · WSH vs MTL | 1.96 | 57% | 31% | 14% | 14:28PP 2:26 | 7.7 | −4% | 2.5 · o +130 / u −155 | 1 |
| Miro HeiskanenD · DAL @ COL | 1.93 | 56% | 31% | 14% | 26:03PP 4:12 | 4.7 | −3% | 1.5 · o −125 / u +110 | 2 |
| Artturi LehkonenF · COL vs DAL | 1.87 | 55% | 29% | 13% | 19:39PP 1:20 | 6.3 | −9% | 1.5 · o −123 / u +110 | 1 |
| Brock NelsonF · COL vs DAL | 1.85 | 54% | 28% | 12% | 18:39PP 1:15 | 6.6 | −8% | 1.5 · o −140 / u +125 | 2 |
| Dylan StromeF · WSH vs MTL | 1.79 | 52% | 27% | 12% | 17:29PP 3:14 | 5.2 | −3% | 1.5 · o −141 / u +120 | 1 |
| T.J. HughesF · COL vs DAL | 1.78 | 52% | 27% | 11% | 14:29PP 3:46 | 7.2 | −9% | 1.5 · o −140 / u +140 | 0 |
| Boone JennerF · WSH vs MTL | 1.77 | 52% | 26% | 11% | 15:13 | 8.0 | −4% | 1.5 · o −137 / u +106 | 0 |
| Lane HutsonD · MTL @ WSH | 1.74 | 51% | 26% | 11% | 25:40PP 3:47 | 3.5 | +2% | 1.5 · o −110 / u −112 | 3 |
| Tyler SeguinF · DAL @ COL | 1.72 | 51% | 25% | 11% | 15:53PP 1:47 | 5.7 | −3% | 1.5 · o −150 / u +125 | 3 |
| Jordan KyrouF · WSH vs MTL | 1.72 | 50% | 25% | 10% | 13:08PP 1:51 | 7.7 | −3% | 1.5 · o −130 / u +105 | 3 |
| Aliaksei ProtasF · WSH vs MTL | 1.69 | 50% | 24% | 10% | 16:00 | 6.8 | −5% | 1.5 · o −114 / u −110 | 1 |
| Brent BurnsD · COL vs DAL | 1.69 | 50% | 24% | 10% | 18:15 | 6.6 | −9% | 1.5 · o −110 / u −108 | 1 |
| Noah DobsonD · MTL @ WSH | 1.66 | 49% | 24% | 9% | 20:09PP 1:18 | 4.9 | +2% | 1.5 · o −155 / u +130 | 5 |
| Cole HutsonD · WSH vs MTL | 1.65 | 48% | 23% | 9% | 19:28PP 2:12 | 4.9 | −3% | 1.5 · o −110 / u −114 | 3 |
| Sam MalinskiD · COL vs DAL | 1.65 | 48% | 23% | 9% | 17:43 | 6.3 | −9% | 1.5 · o −154 / u +119 | 4 |
| Thomas HarleyD · DAL @ COL | 1.63 | 48% | 23% | 9% | 23:51 | 4.3 | −3% | 1.5 · o +104 / u −135 | 3 |
| Chris KreiderF · MTL @ WSH | 1.60 | 47% | 22% | 9% | 14:35PP 3:27 | 5.5 | +2% | 1.5 · o −125 / u +105 | 1 |
| Alex NewhookF · MTL @ WSH | 1.57 | 46% | 21% | 8% | 15:52PP 1:27 | 5.8 | +2% | – | 3 |
| Devon ToewsD · COL vs DAL | 1.47 | 43% | 19% | 7% | 22:58PP 2:09 | 4.3 | −9% | – | 0 |
| Zachary BolducF · MTL @ WSH | 1.45 | 42% | 18% | 7% | 13:57PP 1:25 | 5.6 | +2% | – | 0 |
| Alexandre TexierF · MTL @ WSH | 1.42 | 41% | 18% | 6% | 13:22PP 1:31 | 5.9 | +2% | – | 2 |
| Josh MansonD · COL vs DAL | 1.31 | 37% | 15% | 5% | 18:23 | 5.4 | −9% | – | 1 |
| Josh AndersonF · MTL @ WSH | 1.30 | 37% | 15% | 5% | 13:16 | 6.2 | +2% | – | 3 |
| Anthony BeauvillierF · WSH vs MTL | 1.27 | 36% | 14% | 5% | 12:06 | 6.8 | −3% | – | 0 |
| Sam SteelF · DAL @ COL | 1.26 | 36% | 14% | 5% | 16:21 | 4.8 | −3% | – | 0 |
| Jaden SchwartzF · COL vs DAL | 1.26 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 12:51PP 1:27 | 6.1 | −9% | – | 3 |
| Arttu HyryF · DAL @ COL | 1.23 | 35% | 13% | 4% | 13:06 | 6.2 | −3% | – | 2 |
| Justin SourdifF · WSH vs MTL | 1.22 | 34% | 13% | 4% | 13:26 | 5.3 | −3% | – | 2 |
| Ilya ProtasF · WSH vs MTL | 1.21 | 34% | 13% | 4% | 13:07PP 2:00 | 4.5 | −4% | 1.5 · o +152 / u −190 | 0 |
| Phillip DanaultF · MTL @ WSH | 1.16 | 32% | 12% | 4% | 15:06 | 4.8 | +2% | – | 1 |
| Jamie BennF · DAL @ COL | 1.16 | 32% | 12% | 4% | 12:36 | 5.7 | −3% | 1.5 · o +118 / u −154 | 2 |
| Parker KellyF · COL vs DAL | 1.15 | 32% | 12% | 3% | 12:53 | 6.3 | −9% | – | 0 |
| Justin HryckowianF · DAL @ COL | 1.13 | 31% | 11% | 3% | 14:14 | 4.8 | −3% | – | 2 |
| Ethen FrankF · WSH vs MTL | 1.04 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 9:34 | 6.5 | −2% | – | DNP |
| Kaiden GuhleD · MTL @ WSH | 0.99 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 18:39 | 3.5 | +2% | – | 2 |
| Jake EvansF · MTL @ WSH | 0.96 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 13:08 | 4.4 | +2% | – | 0 |
| Brett KulakD · COL vs DAL | 0.95 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 18:38 | 3.6 | −9% | – | 0 |
| Fedor SvechkovF · COL vs DAL | 0.94 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 12:35 | 4.9 | −8% | – | 3 |
| Timothy LiljegrenD · WSH vs MTL | 0.94 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 18:37 | 3.4 | −4% | – | 0 |
| Owen BeckF · MTL @ WSHthin | 0.93 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 9:15 | 5.9 | +2% | – | 1 |
| Martin FehérváryD · WSH vs MTL | 0.93 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 22:06 | 2.8 | −4% | – | 0 |
| Nils LundkvistD · DAL @ COL | 0.92 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 16:57 | 3.4 | −3% | – | 0 |
| Kirby DachF · MTL @ WSH | 0.90 | 23% | 7% | 2% | 9:00PP 1:04 | 5.7 | +2% | – | 1 |
| Tyler MyersD · DAL @ COL | 0.90 | 23% | 7% | 2% | 14:50 | 4.1 | −3% | – | 0 |
| Nicolas RoyF · COL vs DAL | 0.89 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 12:02 | 5.1 | −9% | – | DNP |
| Esa LindellD · DAL @ COL | 0.83 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 20:34 | 2.7 | −3% | – | 0 |
How the projections work
- 1. How often he shoots
- For each strength state (5-on-5, power play, shorthanded, other), we take the shooter's unblocked attempts per 60 minutes and the share of them that hit the net, from every game in roughly the last 14 months. Recent games count more (the weight halves every 8 months), and both numbers are shrunk toward the forward or defenseman average, so a hot week or a short history barely moves them. Missed shots recorded in a rink whose scorers log more misses than the league are scaled down using our arena scorer factors.
- 2. How much he will play
- Projected 5-on-5 time is a weighted average of his last 10 games, with the latest counting most. Power-play time is his share of his team's recent PP minutes times the PP time we expect tonight: the average of his team's recent PP time and the opponent's recent shorthanded time. The lineup is whoever dressed in the team's last game, or the forecast lineup when our matchup forecast has one.
- 3. Who he will face
- Every skater gets a 5-on-5 shot-suppression rating from a ridge regression on line changes (RAPM-style): unblocked attempts against while he is on the ice, adjusted for his teammates, the opponents and home ice, with every rating pulled toward zero. A shooter's matchup factor averages the opposing skaters' ratings, weighted by the minutes he is expected to share with each. Those minutes come from the matchup forecast (which knows the home coach has last change) when it is available; otherwise from each opponent's projected 5-on-5 time.
- 4. Power play and venue
- Power-play shots are scaled by the opponent's shots allowed per 60 while shorthanded, shrunk toward the league rate. Home teams shoot a little more at 5-on-5; the home and road split comes from the same regression.
- 5. From an average to a probability
- Shots in one game spread out more than a simple Poisson count, because ice time and role move from night to night. We use a negative binomial distribution whose extra spread was fit on last season's out-of-sample projections, then read off P(2+), P(3+) and P(4+) shots.
Last fit Oct 20: 1,534 games, 998 skaters rated.
How accurate is it?
Held-out test: Oct 7, 2025 – Apr 16, 2026
Every game in the test season was projected using only data from before that day, the way the live model works. Lineups were the players who dressed; ice time was projected, not known. Shots on goal are the official count (shootout attempts excluded), arena scorer factors came from the previous season, and the spread of the distribution was fit on the previous season. Lower log-loss is better. The live model scored 1.5332 against 1.5441 for a shots-per-game baseline given the same distribution (mean squared error 1.723 vs 1.757). Defender matchup ratings improved on the team-level adjustment by +0.00026 nats per projection (95% interval +0.00001 to +0.00053, resampling whole games); mean squared error 1.724 → 1.723. The gain also showed up in the tuning season. It is a real but very small effect. Even with perfect knowledge of who played against whom, the gain would be 0.0000: ice time and the shooter's own volume dominate.
| Model | Projections | Log-loss | Mean sq. error | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shots per game, last 12 months | 47,230 | 1.5441 | 1.757 | 0.441 |
| Shooter rate × projected ice time | 47,230 | 1.5352 | 1.730 | 0.455 |
| + opponent team 5v5 and penalty kill | 47,230 | 1.5335 | 1.724 | 0.458 |
| + defender ratings by expected matchup (live model) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
| Hindsight: actual matchups (upper bound, not usable) | 47,230 | 1.5332 | 1.723 | 0.458 |
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 169 | 7.7% | 9.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 3,633 | 16.6% | 16.2% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,907 | 25.3% | 22.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 9,632 | 34.9% | 32.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 8,016 | 44.8% | 43.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 6,692 | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 5,722 | 64.6% | 64.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 3,375 | 74.5% | 74.8% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 1,067 | 83.0% | 84.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 90–100% | 17 | 90.9% | 100.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 11,961 | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 13,994 | 14.6% | 13.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 8,264 | 24.6% | 23.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 6,282 | 34.8% | 35.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 3,719 | 44.6% | 44.1% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 2,071 | 54.7% | 56.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 826 | 63.6% | 66.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 112 | 73.1% | 72.3% |
| 3+ SOG | 80–90% | 1 | 80.2% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 30,086 | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 9,863 | 14.5% | 14.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 4,442 | 24.3% | 24.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 2,020 | 34.6% | 34.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 695 | 43.7% | 44.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 116 | 53.6% | 57.8% |
| 4+ SOG | 60–70% | 8 | 61.8% | 75.0% |
This season so far
3,616 projections across 106 games through Oct 20: 1.54 expected SOG per skater against 1.54 actual.
Show as a table
| Line | Bin | n | Projected | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ SOG | 0–10% | 22 | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 10–20% | 246 | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| 2+ SOG | 20–30% | 677 | 25.3% | 21.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 30–40% | 825 | 34.7% | 35.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 40–50% | 641 | 44.8% | 48.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 50–60% | 523 | 54.7% | 50.9% |
| 2+ SOG | 60–70% | 397 | 65.0% | 63.7% |
| 2+ SOG | 70–80% | 223 | 74.1% | 78.0% |
| 2+ SOG | 80–90% | 62 | 82.2% | 79.0% |
| 3+ SOG | 0–10% | 868 | 6.5% | 6.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 10–20% | 1,181 | 14.3% | 14.2% |
| 3+ SOG | 20–30% | 683 | 24.6% | 24.7% |
| 3+ SOG | 30–40% | 422 | 34.7% | 31.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 40–50% | 290 | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| 3+ SOG | 50–60% | 120 | 54.8% | 55.8% |
| 3+ SOG | 60–70% | 51 | 63.0% | 72.5% |
| 3+ SOG | 70–80% | 1 | 71.1% | 0.0% |
| 4+ SOG | 0–10% | 2,390 | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 4+ SOG | 10–20% | 709 | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 20–30% | 365 | 24.2% | 23.6% |
| 4+ SOG | 30–40% | 108 | 35.3% | 41.7% |
| 4+ SOG | 40–50% | 43 | 43.1% | 51.2% |
| 4+ SOG | 50–60% | 1 | 51.9% | 0.0% |
FAQ
How are NHL shots on goal projections calculated?
Expected SOG = projected ice time at each strength × the shooter's shrunk shots-per-60 at that strength × a matchup factor. The matchup factor comes from the shot-suppression ratings of the opposing skaters he is expected to face at 5-on-5, and from the opponent's penalty kill on the power play. The probabilities come from a negative binomial distribution fit on last season.
Are these betting picks?
No. These are model projections, not bets. The table shows the sportsbook shots line and best prices from up to five US books for context. Since we started logging our projections against those lines before each game (October 2026), the books have been about as accurate as the model on shots on goal, which is not an edge once the bookmaker margin is paid. A 60% projection still misses four times in ten, and the calibration section shows how the probabilities have held up.
How accurate are the projections?
We test the model the way it is used: for every game of a full held-out season, it only sees data from before that day. The methodology section on this page shows the log-loss against a simple shots-per-game baseline and a calibration chart. When we say 40%, it should happen about 40% of the time.
Is this the same SOG number as the daily projections table?
Yes. Tonight's shots on goal and time on ice in the daily fantasy projections table come from this model, so a skater shows the same expected SOG on both pages. On the first graded nights of the season it beat the provider projection it replaced on squared error, log-loss and correlation with actual shots.
Does the opposing defense pair really matter?
Somewhat, and less than ice time and the shooter's own volume. The page reports how much the matchup factor improves accuracy over a team-level adjustment, and how repeatable the defender ratings are from one half of the games to the other. Most matchup factors land between 0.9 and 1.1.
When do the projections update?
Overnight, after the previous night's games, and again during the day as lineups settle. Players who did not dress in their team's last game are left out until they do, so check confirmed lines before puck drop.
Why is a player I expected missing?
The lineup comes from the team's most recent game (or the matchup forecast when it has one). A player returning from injury or a healthy scratch is not projected until he dresses again.