Injury cascade
Who benefits when Colton Dach is out?
Colton Dach (C, Edmonton Oilers) plays 10:47 a night on L3 and PP2, with 6% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 3 games.
Based on 16 games without Colton Dach and 16 with him. Through games of Oct 13, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+1:51 TOI, +19 PP% · 35% rost
+1:49 TOI · 8.1% rost
+1:14 TOI · 3.2% rost
+0:54 TOI · 0.4% rost
+0:51 TOI · 0.0% rost
+0:15 TOI, +4 PP% · 68% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt SavoieCIn 13 games without Colton Dach, Matt Savoie played 17:41 (+2:08), took PP1 in 7 of them (15% of games with him) and moved up to his L3 slot in 2. | 13 | 15:33 → 17:41 | +1:51 | 17% → 39% | 7/13 | 35%▼0.9 | Games without him |
| Owen MichaelsRIn 3 games without Colton Dach, Owen Michaels played 14:55 (+3:01). | 3 | 11:54 → 14:55 | +1:49 | 1% → 1% | 0/3 | 8.1%▲0.8 | Games without him |
| Jason DickinsonCIn 16 games without Colton Dach, Jason Dickinson played 14:41 (+1:23). | 16 | 13:18 → 14:41 | +1:14 | 2% → 2% | 0/16 | 3.2% | Games without him |
| Adam HenriqueCIn 12 games without Colton Dach, Adam Henrique played 11:49 (+1:03) and moved up to his L3 slot in 3. | 12 | 10:46 → 11:49 | +0:54 | 5% → 5% | 0/12 | 0.4% | Games without him |
| Curtis LazarCIn 4 games without Colton Dach, Curtis Lazar played 9:41 (+1:16) and moved up to his L3 slot in 1. | 4 | 8:25 → 9:41 | +0:51 | 0% → 0% | 0/4 | 0.0% | Games without him |
| Mattias EkholmDIn 16 games without Colton Dach, Mattias Ekholm played 20:13 (+0:17). | 16 | 19:56 → 20:13 | +0:15 | 7% → 12% | 0/16 | 68%▼4.2 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Colton Dach is out?
Matt Savoie projects to gain the most (+1:51 a game). In 13 games without Colton Dach, Matt Savoie played 17:41 (+2:08), took PP1 in 7 of them (15% of games with him) and moved up to his L3 slot in 2.
How many games has EDM played without Colton Dach?
16 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 16 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.