Injury cascade
Who benefits when Nico Sturm is out?
Nico Sturm (C, Minnesota Wild) plays 10:09 a night on L4, with 0% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 1 game.
Based on 15 games without Nico Sturm and 60 with him. Through games of Oct 13, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+1:58 TOI, +6 PP% · 0.0% rost
+1:23 TOI · 0.0% rost
+1:08 TOI · 0.0% rost
+0:55 TOI · 16% rost
+0:45 TOI · 0.1% rost
+0:08 TOI · 30% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David SpacekDIn 1 game without Nico Sturm, David Spacek played 15:51 (+5:55) and PP share went 0% → 17%. | 1 | 9:56 → 15:51 | +1:58 | 0% → 17% | 0/1 | 0.0% | Games without him |
| Jeff PetryDIn 5 games without Nico Sturm, Jeff Petry played 13:54 (+1:56). | 5 | 11:57 → 13:54 | +1:23 | 0% → 0% | 0/5 | 0.0% | Games without him |
| Vinnie HinostrozaCIn 1 game without Nico Sturm, Vinnie Hinostroza played 12:42 (+3:25). | 1 | 9:17 → 12:42 | +1:08 | 2% → 0% | 0/1 | 0.0% | Games without him |
| David JiricekDIn 1 game without Nico Sturm, David Jiricek played 13:51 (+2:44). | 1 | 11:07 → 13:51 | +0:55 | 3% → 0% | 0/1 | 16%▲0.8 | Games without him |
| Tyler PitlickCIn 2 games without Nico Sturm, Tyler Pitlick played 9:05 (+1:30). | 2 | 7:34 → 9:05 | +0:45 | 1% → 0% | 0/2 | 0.1% | Games without him |
| Maxim ShabanovRIn 1 game without Nico Sturm, Maxim Shabanov played 15:06 (+0:23) and PP share went 56% → 63%. | 1 | 14:43 → 15:06 | +0:08 | 56% → 63% | 1/1 | 30%▲3.7 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Nico Sturm is out?
David Spacek projects to gain the most (+1:58 a game). In 1 game without Nico Sturm, David Spacek played 15:51 (+5:55) and PP share went 0% → 17%.
How many games has MIN played without Nico Sturm?
15 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 60 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.