Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 8.3 | 8.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 3.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | River CracraftWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | 8.9 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 22.9 | +12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 7.7 | 9.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 13.4 | 14.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 13.0 | 15.9 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.9 | 7.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 1.4 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 9.7 | 4.2 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 23.9 | 23.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 14.3 | 7.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 5.0 | 2.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 10.7 | 11.5 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 8.5 | 4.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 0.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 17.0 | 15.8 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javon BakerWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 2.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 4.9 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.6 | 6.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacoby JonesWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalen CambreWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | 3.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | 10.9 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse