Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth

Freezing: every call

Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.

2024 backtest

111–72–26

60.7% vs 61.1% baseline

Win rate 60.7% (95% 53.4%–67.4%) vs baseline 61.1%

2025 backtest

134–91–30

59.6% vs 61.2% baseline

Win rate 59.6% (95% 53.0%–65.8%) vs baseline 61.2%

2026 live (from Week 5)

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first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

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no graded calls

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
QB23–27–246.0%50.4%
WR152–75–2367.0%63.7%
TE70–61–3153.4%60.9%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag111–72–2660.7%61.1%
0.25–0.5134–91–3059.6%61.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Freezing calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)3.77.5+3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Drake MayeQB NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.5)21.332.4+11.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Javon BakerWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Adonai MitchellWR NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)8.05.2−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kyle WilliamsWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)4.05.0+1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brady CookQB NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5)9.34.2−5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Efton Chism IIIWR NEFade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2)0.712.0+11.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Arian SmithWR NYJFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)1.51.5+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Brandin CooksWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)3.20.0−3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5)19.86.9−12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)6.32.0−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jerry JeudyWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)8.44.2−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kadarius ToneyWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)5.11.2−3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)9.97.4−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike WoodsWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kaden DavisWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)2.13.1+1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Blake WhiteheartTE CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)7.20.0−7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cedric TillmanWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)4.41.8−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jamari ThrashWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brenden BatesTE CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)7.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Malachi CorleyWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.46.1+4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)2.34.6+2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Gage LarvadainWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)2.00.0−2.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)10.719.5+8.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Shedeur SandersQB CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5)8.811.2+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Isaiah BondWR CLEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)4.22.0−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Aaron RodgersQB PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5)15.117.0+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Adam ThielenWR PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)2.71.7−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DeAndre HopkinsWR BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)5.04.2−0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Brandin CooksWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)2.80.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris ManhertzTE NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Stefon DiggsWR NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)11.05.6−5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3)5.225.6+20.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15DeAndre CarterWR CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamison CrowderWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler LockettWR LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2)5.33.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Marcus MariotaQB WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.5)16.314.7−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Austin HooperTE NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)3.60.0−3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris MooreWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alex EricksonWR NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Robbie ChosenWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)9.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hunter HenryTE NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3)10.32.8−7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mike WilliamsWR PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mack HollinsWR NEFade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2)8.38.1−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Noah BrownWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)6.63.8−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3)5.210.6+5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Gerald EverettTE CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15River CracraftWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)3.38.9+5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dallas GoedertTE PHIFade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3)9.625.0+15.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan AkinsTE CLEFade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)1.60.0−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tanner HudsonTE CINFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.54.6+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3)10.33.8−6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Lamar JacksonQB BALFade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5)19.914.6−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Durham SmytheTE CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.80.0−0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15DJ MooreWR CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)10.722.9+12.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Mike GesickiTE CINFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)7.62.1−5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5)20.224.5+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Stephen CarlsonTE CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Olamide ZaccheausWR CHIFade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2)7.10.0−7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Scott MillerWR PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darius SlaytonWR NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2)7.79.3+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Drew SampleTE CINFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)2.53.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15DK MetcalfWR PITFade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2)13.414.5+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Noah FantTE CINFade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3)5.20.0−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Terry McLaurinWR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)13.015.9+2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15A.J. BrownWR PHIFade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2)16.312.1−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3)6.218.7+12.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2)10.97.3−3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Isaiah HodginsWR NYGFade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2)6.21.4−4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIAFade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2)2.20.0−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2)5.8––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 8 · 800 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse