Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.9 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacoby JonesWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalen CambreWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 12.0 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaxson DartQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.5) | 17.9 | 22.1 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.3 | 3.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | 10.9 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 1.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | 1.5 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 17.8 | 6.3 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 5.2 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 2.1 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 1.6 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 1.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 13.1 | 0.6 | −12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 20.6 | +14.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 22.5 | 37.8 | +15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 8.2 | 8.7 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.5 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 17.3 | +10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 6.8 | 4.1 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 17.0 | 19.3 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 3.4 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 11.6 | 27.2 | +15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.4 | 23.4 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 13.5 | 16.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | 2.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 20.4 | 10.2 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 11.5 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | 9.6 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 3.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 12.8 | 0.0 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 3.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 12.6 | 24.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 3.1 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 3.7 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 2.6 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | 14.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 15.8 | 7.4 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 5.4 | 9.3 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.4 | 12.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected −0.2) | 9.6 | 8.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 11.3 | 3.6 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 14.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 12.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 6.4 | 6.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Fade (Freezing vs KC, expected −0.2) | 3.5 | 3.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 7.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse