Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 15.9 | 7.3 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 1.5 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 10.6 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 1.4 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 3.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 4.8 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 5.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 9.1 | 4.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 6.5 | 4.9 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 1.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.5) | 22.5 | 15.7 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 8.6 | 0.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 3.8 | 0.5 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinn EwersQB MIA | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.2 | 8.4 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 1.5 | 0.2 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.3 | 1.3 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs NYJ, expected −0.2) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 8.0 | 5.2 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brady CookQB NYJ | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.5) | 9.3 | 4.2 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 19.8 | 6.9 | −12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 8.4 | 4.2 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 5.1 | 1.2 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 9.9 | 7.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 7.2 | 0.0 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 4.4 | 1.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 4.2 | 2.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 2.7 | 1.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 5.0 | 4.2 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 11.0 | 5.6 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 5.3 | 3.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 16.3 | 14.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 2.8 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 6.6 | 3.8 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | 3.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.5) | 19.9 | 14.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 2.1 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 7.1 | 0.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 16.3 | 12.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 10.9 | 7.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 6.2 | 1.4 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs CLE, expected −0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.2) | 9.7 | 4.2 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 18.3 | 5.5 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 12.9 | 4.6 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 23.9 | 23.2 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 14.3 | 7.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 5.0 | 2.6 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs LV, expected −0.2) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected −0.2) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs MIA, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 0.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 0.0 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 1.3 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 8.5 | 4.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 6.0 | 0.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs BAL, expected −0.2) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 6.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 17.0 | 15.8 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 8.8 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Freezing vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CIN, expected −0.2) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Freezing vs PIT, expected −0.2) | 7.0 | 2.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected −0.2) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Freezing vs BUF, expected −0.2) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Freezing vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 1.9 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalen CambreWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs WAS, expected −0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Freezing vs PHI, expected −0.2) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Shedeur SandersQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 3.5 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 1.8 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse