Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Freezing: every call
Outdoor games at 32°F or colder cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
111–72–26
60.7% vs 61.1% baseline
2025 backtest
134–91–30
59.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
–
no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 23–27–2 | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| WR | 152–75–23 | 67.0% | 63.7% |
| TE | 70–61–31 | 53.4% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 111–72–26 | 60.7% | 61.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 134–91–30 | 59.6% | 61.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 16.0 | 11.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 12.4 | 3.5 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | 2.6 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Carson WentzQB KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 10.3 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 3.0 | 3.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 2.9 | 1.4 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 16.7 | 20.8 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 7.0 | 18.0 | +11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 3.9 | 1.5 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 4.3 | 2.1 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 11.9 | 15.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 13.0 | 22.1 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 9.9 | 14.8 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 3.1 | 5.4 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 21.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 15.5 | 2.8 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Freezing vs GB) | 5.2 | 2.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 15.2 | 12.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 18.3 | 9.3 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 4.9 | 4.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 20.7 | 13.0 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 10.1 | 18.6 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 7.8 | 0.7 | −7.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 26.3 | 25.6 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 20.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 8.6 | 6.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.9 | 0.1 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 14.5 | 1.0 | −13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Freezing vs BAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Freezing vs PIT) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Freezing vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.2 | 4.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 8.7 | 16.4 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Freezing vs CIN) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Freezing vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Freezing vs DEN) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny PickettQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 1.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 7.7 | 9.9 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner McKeeQB PHI | Fade (Freezing vs NYG) | 10.3 | 18.9 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Freezing vs CHI) | 1.9 | 8.3 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Freezing vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse