Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Kenny McIntoshRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jordan JamesRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1)0.70.4−0.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Justice HillRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Owen WrightRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16DJ GiddensRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.0-0.1−3.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nyheim HinesRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Blake WatsonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nyheim HinesRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Khari BlasingameRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13AJ DillonRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13DeeJay DallasRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 10 · 908 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse