Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 13.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 15.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 15.0 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.0 | 14.5 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 18.5 | 20.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 9.6 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 10.5 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 7.4 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 21.2 | 30.3 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 17.2 | 18.7 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 13.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | 34.0 | +28.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 2.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 10.5 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 10.7 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 17.1 | 32.3 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 10.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 13.7 | 14.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 17.7 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 13.4 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 18.4 | 40.5 | +22.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 14.3 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 9.1 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 16.1 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 28.0 | +17.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.9 | 20.0 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 4.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 4.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 11.4 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 13.9 | 19.9 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 25.2 | 37.4 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.4 | 33.6 | +16.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 20.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 3.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 13.6 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 4.1 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | 15.1 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 6.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 34.2 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 16.8 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 15.4 | 19.8 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 7.2 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 5.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 5.2 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 13.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 5.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 9.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 33.9 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 10.8 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 3.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 20.3 | 35.8 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 5.3 | 9.0 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 17.1 | 31.0 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 22.8 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 31.0 | +17.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 18.7 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 12.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | 15.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 14.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 26.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 23.1 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 18.8 | 31.1 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 2.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 6.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 8.7 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 19.5 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | 12.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 8.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 15.9 | 25.5 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 6.6 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 12.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 21.7 | 30.1 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 21.4 | 25.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.7 | 10.1 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.0 | 8.9 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.5 | 23.6 | +22.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.9 | 8.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.6 | 18.2 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.4 | 2.0 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 23.4 | 31.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | 4.9 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.1 | 9.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | 10.7 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | 3.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.0 | 8.6 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.5 | 27.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 5.0 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.5 | 11.3 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 7.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 24.9 | 26.3 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse