Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 17.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacoby JonesWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Coleman OwenWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Beaux CollinsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalevon CampbellWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ricky White IIIWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David SillsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 6.7 | +2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Maurice AlexanderWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacoby JonesWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Coleman OwenWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Myles PriceWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hunter RenfrowWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse