Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Tyler JohnsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.37.5+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.81.8−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)1.89.3+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)3.36.0+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Adam PrenticeRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.06.7+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brandon SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kene NwangwuRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)5.01.8−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)3.72.9−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)15.135.3+20.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Luke FarrellTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Khalil HerbertRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)4.65.6+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)21.923.3+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)18.64.8−13.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.81.1−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyler BadieRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)3.04.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dareke YoungWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18George PickensWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)17.81.9−15.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)20.31.5−18.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.36.1−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.21.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)7.22.9−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)8.06.4−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jalen NailorWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)6.87.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Chris OladokunQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)12.7-1.7−14.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)16.29.4−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.71.2−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18John Metchie IIIWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)6.05.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.00.3−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)8.429.2+20.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jalen TolbertWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.10.0−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Treylon BurksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)4.83.2−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Velus Jones Jr.RB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18KaVontae TurpinWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.40.7−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jeremy RuckertTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.60.0−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)16.75.2−11.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.12.0−0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)10.21.5−8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenny PickettQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)10.1-1.0−11.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)7.211.8+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Malik WillisQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)6.022.4+16.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)13.717.3+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.81.6−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Eric GrayRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zavier ScottRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6)8.72.7−6.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Owen WrightRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brady RussellRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)25.27.3−17.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)21.614.4−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.32.2−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)12.320.9+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)9.55.4−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Clayton TuneQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)6.53.7−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.01.4+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Chase BrownRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)19.819.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.219.7+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)5.915.3+9.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Kenny McIntoshRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalen CropperWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jake BoboWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Nate AdkinsTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)5.26.8+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.32.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.44.7+3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.62.4−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)6.17.8+1.7✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 67 · 6,619 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse