Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W4Robbie ChosenWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4River CracraftWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Richie JamesWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Marquise BrownWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)9.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Miles BoykinWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Trishton JacksonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Isaiah HodginsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Chase ClaypoolWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Justyn RossWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Montrell WashingtonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Kyle PhilipsWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Brandon JohnsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Tay MartinWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Lucky JacksonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Colton DowellWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)14.70.0−14.7voidBacktest ·
2024 W4Jha'Quan JacksonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)0.6––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 13 of 13 · 1,224 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse