Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W13Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Blake WhiteheartTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)7.913.5+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Dylan DrummondWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.91.3−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Marvin Mims Jr.WR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)6.13.7−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)7.58.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Zay FlowersWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)18.70.6−18.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)17.829.4+11.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.51.4−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)20.613.2−7.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)23.911.6−12.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)11.722.5+10.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Johnny WilsonWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)4.60.0−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Casey WashingtonWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.923.3+17.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)3.10.0−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.44.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6)18.616.4−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.214.1+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Will ShipleyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.92.1+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Ainias SmithWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.00.0−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Devontez WalkerWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)11.312.9+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)20.620.5−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Troy FranklinWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)12.34.1−8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Adonai MitchellWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.924.2+18.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)10.64.8−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)11.411.4−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)14.49.5−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Darius CooperWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13LaJohntay WesterWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)6.65.8−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.210.3+8.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)5.17.2+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kaleb JohnsonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.90.3−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)3.72.3−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.95.0+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Devin NealRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.29.9−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Arian SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)7.711.3+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)5.88.9+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.811.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)12.317.4+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)9.515.9+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6)20.422.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)17.023.2+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)16.64.0−12.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.75.7+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)19.422.8+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)21.417.2−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)3.22.2−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)24.727.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)11.413.8+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.48.7−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)3.30.0−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Patrick RicardRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Samaje PerineRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)11.25.0−6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Eric SaubertTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Jonnu SmithTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.55.8−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)12.120.0+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)11.82.1−9.7❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 14 of 32 · 3,192 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse