Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 4.3 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.8 | 2.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 1.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.0 | 1.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.6 | 4.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 12.9 | 25.3 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.7 | 14.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.2 | 8.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.9 | 9.7 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 8.6 | 0.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 9.5 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.7 | 1.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.1 | 11.3 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.3 | 3.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.8 | 4.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.2 | 7.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.8 | 11.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.0 | 5.6 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.7 | 16.5 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.2 | 15.7 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 17.1 | 13.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 14.4 | 12.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.8 | 9.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | 1.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | 11.6 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.2 | 14.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 18.3 | 19.4 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 4.2 | 4.9 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.0 | 13.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 5.8 | 5.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.5 | 2.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 1.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 20.9 | 30.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 15.5 | 6.3 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.7 | 3.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 15.7 | 15.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.9 | 26.6 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | 7.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 10.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse