Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 28.3 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cooper RushQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 1.2 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 16.2 | 26.7 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 22.3 | 19.4 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 27.6 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake BrowningQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 19.1 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 19.2 | 15.3 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 16.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 22.7 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 14.6 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 20.0 | 25.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 15.9 | 28.8 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 11.6 | 8.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 27.4 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 18.9 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 15.3 | 16.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 16.1 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 11.7 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 18.4 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 18.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 4.5 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 15.8 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 13.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 17.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 11.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
NewerPage 3 of 3 · 225 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse