Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 20.8 | 6.7 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 5.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 16.0 | 18.6 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 3.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.3 | 10.6 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.7 | 2.3 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.3 | 17.8 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.5 | 17.3 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.1 | 14.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 14.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.6 | 8.9 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 5.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 16.4 | 26.3 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.5 | 4.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | 0.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.4 | 14.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.2 | 27.2 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.3 | 14.6 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.5 | 4.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.1 | 0.3 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.1 | 10.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.0 | 1.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 27.2 | 14.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.0 | 19.4 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 18.1 | 24.6 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.5 | 15.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.1 | 12.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse