Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)10.00.2−9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.55.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Justice HillRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.71.9+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)11.31.4−9.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)14.44.8−9.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)18.116.9−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)14.69.0−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.417.8+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler GoodsonRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.30.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)6.613.5+6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)7.58.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.71.4−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keaton MitchellRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.81.3−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Owen WrightRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.913.9+9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.50.4−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.78.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)4.36.3+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)19.118.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)25.522.8−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Bucky IrvingRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)12.57.1−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.61.1−9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.82.2−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.612.3+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.71.4−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)10.631.8+21.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16DJ GiddensRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.0-0.1−3.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)10.612.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)8.08.5+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.416.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.62.2−9.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Raheem MostertRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.21.2−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.91.2−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nyheim HinesRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.61.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.018.2+8.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.05.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.022.6+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Adam PrenticeRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.1-0.1−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.710.7−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler BadieRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)3.41.1−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)18.231.1+12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)6.11.8−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Evan HullRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.11.2−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)19.229.5+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)4.70.4−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)6.95.6−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)18.018.7+0.7✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 3 of 9 · 857 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse