Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik CunninghamWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier RestrepoWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalevon CampbellWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 1.9 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacoby JonesWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ricky White IIIWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | 0.0 | −8.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ricky White IIIWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 0.0 | −6.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse