Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.10.0−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jermaine BurtonWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Troy FranklinWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.45.7−6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)5.81.5−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)11.57.9−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)10.54.1−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.05.0+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tai FeltonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jahdae WalkerWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.15.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Theo Wease Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.213.3+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacoby JonesWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Coleman OwenWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.01.5+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.712.0+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.43.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.63.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.12.5−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.127.8+17.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.68.9+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)12.19.4−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Brandin CooksWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.20.0−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.616.2+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.210.3+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kendrick BourneWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)7.35.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.51.6−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent SherfieldWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dante PettisWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)0.74.9+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tom KennedyWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)13.68.2−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16James ProcheWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)12.07.2−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)15.218.1+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Van JeffersonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.04.4−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)23.19.4−13.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.11.2−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.63.8+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)16.936.8+19.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)17.212.0−5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)9.97.4−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jalen VirgilWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)11.624.6+13.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)6.81.8−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.53.3+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.920.4+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)16.313.2−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.50.0−5.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.13.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Malik CunninghamWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.911.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier LegetteWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)7.92.2−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)7.87.7−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.43.9+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.08.1+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.42.4−9.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)7.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)13.214.3+1.1✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 3 of 26 · 2,502 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse