Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Deven ThompkinsWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Maurice AlexanderWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Velus Jones Jr.RB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brady RussellRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17E.J. JenkinsTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Deuce VaughnRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kenny McIntoshRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ronnie BellWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.60.0−2.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyler ScottWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dylan DrummondWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)4.40.0−4.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Casey WashingtonWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jermaine BurtonWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tai FeltonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jordan JamesRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1)0.70.4−0.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jacoby JonesWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Coleman OwenWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jaydon BlueRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)9.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Trent SherfieldWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Justice HillRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tom KennedyWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.40.0−1.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W16JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 3 of 14 · 1,335 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse