Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.79.0+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.910.3+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.23.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyquan ThorntonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.90.0−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nikko RemigioWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.615.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.09.1+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)11.06.8−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Derius DavisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie JonesWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)9.817.0+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)6.86.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.718.0+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ronnie BellWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.54.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.82.7−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.03.7+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9John ShenkerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)11.84.0−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)11.117.7+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)18.016.6−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)2.46.0+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.95.6−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)16.418.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.16.4+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)15.84.4−11.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)10.043.3+33.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Spencer RattlerQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)11.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Bub MeansWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.63.0−9.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jha'Quan JacksonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brenden RiceWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jermaine JacksonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Bryce OliverWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen JohnsonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)3.6-0.6−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.111.4+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jermaine BurtonWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)9.311.7+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)11.622.6+11.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Adonai MitchellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)4.01.7−2.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)16.38.5−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.96.0−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)14.69.6−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael Penix Jr.QB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)13.122.7+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9J.J. McCarthyQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)13.818.9+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)7.20.7−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)13.919.9+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)12.57.6−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)5.81.4−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)6.0-0.3−6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Elic AyomanorWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)10.27.6−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.92.9−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W9KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)10.911.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.71.9−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W9Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)5.02.5−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)15.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.6)10.86.4−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)17.827.2+9.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)7.37.5+0.2pushBacktest ·

NewerPage 23 of 67 · 6,619 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse