Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W6Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Cedric TillmanWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)5.39.0+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)17.131.0+13.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.51.7−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)23.44.8−18.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)16.218.5+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Dante MillerRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Spencer RattlerQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)16.511.1−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jamari ThrashWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.43.3+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)7.40.6−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.822.8+20.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.37.1+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)19.113.4−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)4.72.3−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.62.2+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)4.35.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.24.7−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)11.85.2−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)15.723.0+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)10.210.6+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.64.1−7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.43.1+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)5.711.8+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)3.01.2−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gage LarvadainWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.74.2+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)3.83.5−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.41.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Trevor EtienneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.31.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.80.0−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)17.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)9.78.8−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)13.331.0+17.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Isaiah BondWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)5.12.9−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)13.85.9−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ameer AbdullahRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)7.96.6−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler LockettWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.87.6+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Sterling ShepardWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)7.011.9+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)4.60.0−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)14.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ezekiel ElliottRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.428.3+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.86.6−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.010.6+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Cooper RushQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)12.21.2−11.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Evan EngramTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)6.913.3+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.52.8+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Dalvin CookRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.911.9+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)14.25.6−8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)8.018.7+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)3.25.0+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)8.711.0+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Justin WatsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)9.24.2−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Christian KirkWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)8.710.4+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Nick ChubbRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)9.512.1+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)9.518.1+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6)16.226.7+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Josh AllenQB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)22.319.4−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)15.827.6+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jakobi MeyersWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)14.47.2−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 29 of 67 · 6,619 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse