Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 1.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.9 | 8.3 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 12.0 | 5.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.6 | 2.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.7 | 2.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.6 | 3.5 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 15.2 | 11.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.7 | 4.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.2 | 5.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 20.4 | 13.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.6 | 0.3 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.1 | 5.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 20.8 | 6.7 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.3 | 10.6 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.7 | 2.3 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 21.0 | 9.4 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.6 | 8.9 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.5 | 4.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | 0.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.4 | 14.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.3 | 14.6 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.3 | 0.8 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.0 | 1.6 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 27.2 | 14.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.4 | 0.3 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.3 | 0.7 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | -2.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.9 | 2.3 | −14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.6 | 8.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 16.5 | 6.0 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | 0.4 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.3 | 4.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 15.9 | 7.8 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.5 | 9.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 15.0 | 8.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.3 | 3.5 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 12.9 | 7.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.8 | 2.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.8 | 4.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 16.0 | 10.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 14.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 22.0 | 12.9 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.2 | 2.7 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.9 | 5.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.1 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 5.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 17.0 | 8.5 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 7.5 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 19.2 | 11.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse