Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W15Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.38.0+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.30.4−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Blake WatsonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.62.1−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.72.3−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)12.28.2−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.10.0−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Devin NealRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)12.010.2−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.70.3−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)8.93.3−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)8.815.6+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15RJ HarveyRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.210.5−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.530.1+19.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Samaje PerineRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)5.54.8−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)8.728.1+19.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)16.417.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)12.911.2−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Chase BrownRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)17.318.5+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.61.6−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.91.0−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.26.7+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)10.911.4+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)7.58.7+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)10.914.7+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nyheim HinesRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Saquon BarkleyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)17.65.6−12.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Khari BlasingameRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)10.45.3−5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Trayveon WilliamsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Craig ReynoldsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)10.712.8+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13AJ DillonRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13DeeJay DallasRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)11.011.0−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Kenny GainwellRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)9.86.5−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Travis EtienneRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)16.05.1−10.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jaylen WarrenRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)12.812.4−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)3.44.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Connor HeywardRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)17.513.2−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Pierre StrongRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Evan HullRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.21.5−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tank BigsbyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.10.0−4.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)7.58.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)23.911.6−12.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Blake CorumRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.214.1+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Will ShipleyRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)1.92.1+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kaleb JohnsonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.90.3−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)3.72.3−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Devin NealRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.29.9−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)5.88.9+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W13TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.811.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)9.515.9+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)19.422.8+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)24.727.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.48.7−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Patrick RicardRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 4 of 19 · 1,832 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse