Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W7Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)3.30.0−3.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.41.8−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)5.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Jimmy GrahamTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Darren WallerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Robert TonyanTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Ross DwelleyTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR)0.30.0−0.3voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Kevin RaderTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18David WellsTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Trevon WescoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Matt SokolTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Tyler MabryTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Brevin JordanTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Ben MasonTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Zach DavidsonTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Jack StollTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Teagan QuitorianoTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)8.80.0−8.8voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE)7.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W18Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Robert TonyanTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Evan EngramTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)9.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Kevin RaderTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Ian ThomasTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17David WellsTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Trevon WescoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Donald ParhamTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Parker HesseTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Ben MasonTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Josh PedersonTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17James MitchellTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2024 W17Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Jimmy GrahamTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2024 W16Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI)0.7––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 4 of 8 · 713 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse