Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 0.0 | −7.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.8 | +0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hunter RenfrowWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalevon CampbellWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse