Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | 4.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.7 | 21.4 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.6 | 30.0 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 19.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.6 | 24.5 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 7.8 | 8.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 13.9 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 4.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.2 | 15.6 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.1 | 23.0 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 8.7 | 11.7 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.0 | 29.1 | +16.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.8 | 10.8 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.6 | 20.5 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.3 | 9.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.2 | 10.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.5 | 13.0 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.2 | 7.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 15.7 | 19.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.6 | 23.0 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 17.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 17.7 | 37.3 | +19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 6.3 | 21.0 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | 9.1 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 14.9 | 32.5 | +17.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.0 | 25.9 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.5 | 9.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.2 | 20.2 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.4 | 3.1 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 16.6 | 21.4 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.9 | 8.1 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.2 | 14.9 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.1 | 16.6 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 24.3 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.9 | 13.0 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.5 | 10.6 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.9 | 25.8 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.8 | 8.2 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.4 | 12.9 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 7.7 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.1 | 9.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.8 | 7.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 8.9 | 13.3 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 12.3 | 23.7 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | 1.6 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 14.9 | 40.5 | +25.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.8 | 3.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 11.0 | 19.2 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.6 | 17.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 15.6 | 16.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.8 | 10.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | 2.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.8 | 17.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.1 | 15.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | 3.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.5 | 20.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 6.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.8 | 20.1 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.8 | 13.1 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.1 | 29.7 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | 21.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 15.6 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 10.1 | 12.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | 2.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 4.3 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 9.5 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.1 | 11.3 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.2 | 7.2 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 8.2 | 14.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.1 | 19.1 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.7 | 16.8 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.6 | 15.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 12.7 | 26.2 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.8 | 18.6 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.1 | 6.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.3 | 17.6 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.9 | 21.8 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.0 | 13.3 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse