Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brock WrightTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen VirgilWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Owen WrightRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.50.0−5.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Malik CunninghamWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sione VakiRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)7.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16DJ GiddensRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.0-0.1−3.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dominic LovettWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Xavier RestrepoWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DeAndre CarterWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)9.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)6.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nyheim HinesRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Collin JohnsonWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 4 of 14 · 1,335 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse