Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Philip RiversQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 7.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 7.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh JohnsonQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 8.9 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 20.0 | 12.8 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 9.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 9.4 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 3.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 2.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 12.6 | 7.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 20.4 | 22.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 8.9 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 45.6 | +31.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 2.1 | −15.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 24.5 | 28.1 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 5.1 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 8.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | 9.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 4.9 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 5.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.1 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 2.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 1.7 | −12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 6.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 14.8 | 6.8 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 17.3 | 17.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 6.3 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 7.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 17.0 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 11.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 1.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 5.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | David SillsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 6.7 | +2.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 4.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | 7.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 11.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 14.1 | 1.3 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 11.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Giovanni RicciTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 13.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Lawrence CagerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse