Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W6 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 17.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | 6.6 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 24.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | La'Mical PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse