Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach DavidsonTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach GentryTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | John ShenkerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jack StollTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse