Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.5 | 5.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.6 | 21.6 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 1.3 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 9.8 | 6.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.3 | 2.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 2.6 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SimsTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | 2.4 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.8 | 4.3 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 10.6 | 15.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.6 | 1.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.8 | 15.9 | +11.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.0 | 9.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.7 | 20.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.9 | 3.9 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.0 | 8.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.4 | 4.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.9 | 18.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.5 | 22.6 | +18.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.0 | 1.7 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 12.9 | 25.3 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.7 | 14.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | 11.6 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 4.2 | 4.9 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.1 | 1.7 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.2 | 1.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 9.9 | 4.2 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.2 | 8.0 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach GentryTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.8 | 6.4 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 5.1 | 12.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse