Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W8 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.4 | 0.0 | −15.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 2.5 | +1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ja'Corey BrooksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 14.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 3.2 | −1.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James ProcheWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse