Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.9 | 5.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.8 | 3.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.6 | 0.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 11.0 | 19.2 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 9.4 | 4.1 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.6 | 17.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 15.6 | 16.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.5 | 7.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.2 | 6.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.8 | 10.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.2 | 2.6 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 9.7 | 3.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.7 | 1.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.0 | 2.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.8 | 17.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.1 | 15.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.4 | 9.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | 3.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.1 | 4.5 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.5 | 20.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.6 | 8.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 6.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.8 | 20.1 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.8 | 13.1 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.1 | 29.7 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.4 | 1.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.6 | 2.4 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.2 | 0.0 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.6 | 21.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.4 | 3.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 15.6 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 11.1 | 9.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 10.1 | 12.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 5.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.4 | 2.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.9 | 0.5 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Samori ToureWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 4.3 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.6 | 4.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.2 | 8.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse