Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 11.9 | 0.0 | −11.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Giovanni RicciTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach GentryTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Anthony FirkserTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse