Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 7.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyquan ThorntonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.5 | 3.1 | −13.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse