Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 8.8 | 21.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | 6.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 19.5 | 21.9 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.7 | 19.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 15.6 | 23.7 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.8 | 10.0 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.8 | 17.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | 10.7 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 24.7 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 24.1 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 15.1 | 21.9 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.8 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.6 | 14.4 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 14.9 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.7 | 21.2 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.3 | 3.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.3 | 34.2 | +31.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.6 | 19.5 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.8 | 12.2 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.6 | 18.4 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.5 | 9.9 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.9 | 18.5 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.8 | 9.9 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.2 | 22.7 | +14.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.6 | 11.8 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.2 | 20.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.8 | 11.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.8 | 16.0 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 4.4 | 14.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.0 | 11.7 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 10.3 | 11.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.4 | 14.7 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.9 | 11.1 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | 4.2 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.8 | 18.7 | +9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.4 | 10.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 20.7 | 33.4 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.7 | 19.4 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 13.0 | 22.7 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.1 | 20.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.9 | 8.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.3 | 12.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.2 | 15.8 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.5 | 5.1 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.0 | 4.9 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 8.2 | 12.5 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.6 | 19.2 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.7 | 11.2 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 17.4 | 21.2 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 11.3 | 18.3 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 12.9 | 16.1 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 5.2 | 8.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.3 | 10.3 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.9 | 13.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 2.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 6.4 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 4.0 | 25.9 | +21.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | 3.4 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.1 | 1.8 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.4 | 11.5 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.4 | 14.5 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.2 | 19.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.1 | 23.7 | +11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | 2.6 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.4 | 2.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.1 | 14.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.8 | 4.0 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 13.7 | 23.1 | +9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.6 | 15.9 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.8 | 9.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 12.4 | 23.2 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.4 | 23.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.9 | 21.6 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 4.6 | 8.2 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.0 | 15.4 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.0 | 20.4 | +19.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.8 | 18.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.9 | 8.6 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.9 | 15.0 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.7 | 1.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 14.2 | 19.8 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.3 | 10.9 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.4 | 8.0 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin FieldsQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 15.9 | 32.0 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 15.1 | 16.3 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 13.4 | 15.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | 8.5 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 17.4 | 20.3 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.3 | 3.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse