Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 7.8 | 10.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.0 | 9.5 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | 4.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | John RossWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.1 | 6.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 15.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 14.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.5 | 3.4 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.6 | 17.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 9.7 | 8.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.9 | 3.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.5 | 2.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | 4.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ty MontgomeryWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.5 | 10.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.0 | 1.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robbie ChosenWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.7 | 27.4 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.2 | 12.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.2 | 8.1 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.5 | 3.2 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.0 | 14.0 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | 4.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.0 | 21.4 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.7 | 12.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braxton BerriosWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 12.8 | 7.3 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 1.9 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.9 | 19.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Devin DuvernayWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | K.J. OsbornWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.5 | 6.8 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike StrachanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.1 | 6.0 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.1 | 2.6 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 16.3 | 18.6 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.4 | 10.7 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse