Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Giovanni RicciTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16James ProcheWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)18.116.9−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)12.07.2−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)15.218.1+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)14.69.0−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)6.33.4−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)18.330.2+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Van JeffersonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.04.4−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)1.61.3−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)18.529.0+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.65.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.41.5+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jermar JeffersonRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brock WrightTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.417.8+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)23.19.4−13.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)13.718.7+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)16.231.2+15.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.11.2−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyler GoodsonRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.30.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)6.613.5+6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.63.8+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)16.936.8+19.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)17.212.0−5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)7.58.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)9.97.4−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.92.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen VirgilWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.71.4−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)11.624.6+13.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)18.830.9+12.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)6.81.8−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.60.0−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)10.34.9−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)2.02.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.53.3+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.80.0−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.03.5−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Keaton MitchellRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)4.81.3−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Owen WrightRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.920.4+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.30.0−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)16.313.2−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.913.9+9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.50.0−5.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.13.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris BrooksRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.50.4−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.78.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacob SaylorsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Malik CunninghamWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)7.514.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)4.36.3+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.911.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)19.118.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.62.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)25.522.8−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)4.36.8+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6)14.217.6+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)10.614.3+3.7✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 8 of 67 · 6,619 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse