Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W4 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrell DanielsTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.6 | 1.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Anthony FirkserTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kevin RaderTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 7.0 | 5.7 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.9 | 2.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 8.3 | 6.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.2 | 0.1 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trevon WescoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.4 | 1.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.1 | 4.6 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.4 | 8.0 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh PedersonTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.5 | 0.0 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | 8.5 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.3 | 3.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.8 | 1.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.6 | 10.3 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.0 | 4.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 8.3 | 9.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.6 | 3.7 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brenden BatesTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 10.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | 6.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Giovanni RicciTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.3 | 5.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.9 | 2.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
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How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse