Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 16.4 | 26.3 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.5 | 4.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle PhilipsWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | 0.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.0 | 8.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deven ThompkinsWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tay MartinWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 3.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.8 | 1.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.6 | 0.0 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Treylon BurksWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 6.2 | 13.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.1 | 3.7 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Desmond RidderQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 11.8 | 11.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 9.9 | 4.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.4 | 14.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 8.0 | 3.8 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 12.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.7 | 14.7 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.2 | 1.5 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Colton DowellWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.1 | 9.3 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 1.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 11.2 | 6.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 7.2 | 27.2 | +20.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.3 | 14.6 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 16.0 | 11.3 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 12.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will LevisQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.7 | -4.4 | −18.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.6 | 11.6 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 15.8 | 14.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 9.7 | 2.9 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.5 | 4.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 6.3 | 21.0 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | 1.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.3 | 3.2 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.8 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | 9.1 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.8 | 1.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse