Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W4Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.4)20.120.5+0.4pushBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W17Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)17.317.4+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3)15.615.1−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Chris OladokunQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)7.77.7+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)19.019.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Dak PrescottQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)18.719.2+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)21.320.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)20.620.5−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W12Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)16.616.8+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W12Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)16.917.1+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)19.819.6−0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W17Mason RudolphQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)12.312.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W17Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR)15.616.0+0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W16Cooper RushQB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB)15.515.3−0.2pushBacktest ·
2024 W11Geno SmithQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)15.715.7+0.1pushBacktest ·
2024 W9Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)18.217.8−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Russell WilsonQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG)14.313.8−0.5pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Sam DarnoldQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR)17.818.2+0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W8Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ)11.211.5+0.3pushBacktest ·
2024 W6Joe FlaccoQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)13.813.7−0.2pushBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse