Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 26.7 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | 16.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 9.7 | 13.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | John Metchie IIIWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 6.7 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Romeo DoubsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 23.8 | +14.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 14.5 | 16.5 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 7.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 5.2 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 9.2 | 23.2 | +14.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 15.3 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 7.6 | 8.2 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | 23.6 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 18.3 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 16.8 | 45.2 | +28.4 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 12.2 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 11.7 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 13.5 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Dohnte MeyersWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Malachi FieldsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 6.7 | 13.2 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Josh CameronWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 6.2 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 14.5 | 15.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | John Metchie IIIWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 9.9 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Ryan MillerWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 3.5 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 12.3 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 8.0 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Chris BellWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 10.7 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 18.2 | +15.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 15.1 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 18.4 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 7.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 29.2 | +20.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 20.9 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 19.7 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 4.7 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 7.1 | 9.6 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 11.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 7.4 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 8.1 | 16.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 8.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 20.4 | 22.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 8.9 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 5.1 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 6.3 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 5.5 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 4.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 21.0 | 25.0 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 3.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 15.2 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 18.5 | 25.9 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 10.7 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 9.0 | 14.8 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 19.0 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 8.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 4.0 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | 12.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jahdae WalkerWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 5.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Theo Wease Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 13.3 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 12.0 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 10.1 | 27.8 | +17.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 8.9 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 16.2 | +12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 10.3 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 4.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 15.2 | 18.1 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 3.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 16.9 | 36.8 | +19.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 24.6 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 3.3 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 20.4 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 3.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 11.8 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 3.9 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 8.1 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 14.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 19.3 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 8.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 15.2 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chimere DikeWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 7.4 | 13.0 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 9.4 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 8.9 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 22.9 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 9.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 13.4 | 14.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 15.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 12.1 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 6.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 16.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 8.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 25.3 | 27.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 17.1 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 6.0 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 8.6 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 7.9 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Luther Burden IIIWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 14.4 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 11.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 18.1 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 11.5 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 16.7 | +9.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 6 · 505 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse