Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 16.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 1.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.2 | 4.9 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | River CracraftWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 13.7 | 9.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hunter RenfrowWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 14.5 | 9.4 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | 18.2 | +15.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 11.9 | 9.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 4.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 0.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 15.1 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 8.6 | 3.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 18.4 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 17.9 | 1.4 | −16.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 1.8 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 2.9 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 1.9 | −15.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 7.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 1.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 5.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 29.2 | +20.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 3.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 0.7 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 1.6 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 21.6 | 14.4 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 20.9 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 5.4 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 19.7 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 4.7 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 2.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 1.8 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 7.1 | 9.6 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 29.1 | 26.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 17.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 5.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 11.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 7.4 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 8.1 | 16.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 0.0 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 7.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 7.6 | 8.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 12.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 26 · 2,502 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse