Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 8.2 | 4.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 7.5 | 4.8 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.5 | 12.5 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.8 | 3.2 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.9 | 3.8 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.8 | 6.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 11.0 | 9.5 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.8 | 5.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.4 | 3.3 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 8.6 | 7.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.6 | 2.9 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 5.1 | 2.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 17.6 | 6.2 | −11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.4 | 8.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.2 | 2.3 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 18.3 | 9.3 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 20.7 | 13.0 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.4 | 1.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 26.3 | 25.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.3 | 4.3 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.7 | 3.5 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 4.1 | 1.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 12.0 | 10.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.1 | 3.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.8 | 1.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 5.7 | 2.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.4 | 0.0 | −16.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.9 | 1.1 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.8 | 9.1 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 1.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 7.7 | 6.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 7.5 | 3.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.1 | 1.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.2 | 5.3 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.9 | 5.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.1 | 3.2 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.9 | 6.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.3 | 6.8 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.1 | 9.1 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 5.9 | 3.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.9 | 6.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 22.5 | 4.2 | −18.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.1 | 0.5 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 8.5 | 2.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.4 | 9.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.0 | 3.9 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.9 | 0.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 15.7 | 11.7 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 6.2 | 5.3 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.0 | 3.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.7 | 0.0 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 8.2 | 3.7 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.7 | 1.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 24.1 | 18.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 17.2 | 12.6 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 11 · 1,049 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse