Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 11.4 | 18.0 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 17.9 | 6.4 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.2 | 9.6 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 11.9 | 3.0 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 15.5 | 19.5 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 16.2 | 28.6 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 15.1 | 13.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 16.1 | 22.2 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.3 | 5.3 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.1 | 12.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.7 | 12.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.7 | 13.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 16.6 | 18.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.6 | 26.6 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.9 | 12.6 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 14.9 | 16.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 14.9 | 24.1 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 11.1 | 7.7 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 14.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 11.4 | 4.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.5 | 16.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 11.5 | 9.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 13.5 | 17.5 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 10.7 | 12.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 15.1 | 11.0 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.9 | 9.9 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 14.5 | 11.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Nick MullensQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 15.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W1 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BUF) | 14.4 | 14.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
NewerPage 2 of 2 · 135 calls
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse